Independence.

Oy. Well, I see Kosova declared independence. And then it took about a day for the Serbs to burn down a US embassy. Which happened to be US sovereign soil.

Will Serbia invade and occupy Kosovo? Not likely. They didn't have the numbers, logistics or equipment to do so. Genocide is one thing. A full blown war with no real allies is not generally a good idea for a tiny landlocked nation. Closest ally Serbia has is Russia, and that's solely based of racial solidarity and little else. Russia's willing to sell them goods (and not at insanely cheap rates either) and publically 'stand up' for Serbia strictly in a verbal sense. Russia made it quite clear that the Russian military will not back up Serbia.

If we wanted to crush Serbia, we'd simply ask all of the surrounding countries to close the roads and airspace. Then Serbia starves and runs out of fuel in short order. We went relatively easy on Serbia, not the other way around. We bombed some power plants and some military bases, and not much else. We didn't drop all of their bridges and clusterbomb all their roads. Yea, it could have been bloodier, but it wasn't. Serbia knew its options once NATO stepped in. They ain't that stupid. Not to say it's out of the question to sneak in "anti-terrorism units" into Kosovo to cause havok or whatnot.

A bit of a history of Serbia. The League of Communists of Serbia put Milošević in power. They later changed their name to Socialist Party of Serbia. The nationalist movements in Croatia, Macedonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina caused them to seperate from Yugoslavia. Savezna Republika Jugoslavija promoted Serb ethnic identity over national unity and attempted to overthrow the surrounding independent nations. The Demokratska opozicija Srbije (democratic opposition group) kicked out Milošević when he allegedly tried rigging the elections. Couple years later, Montenegro voted to become an independent nation. The Serbia of a decade ago was barely socialist cover for the old Communist regime. The new Serbia (formed June 5th 2006) is only 'nationalist' because every other nation in their ever shifting alliance left through votes or blood.


Now the next part is gonna sound a bit odd after all my "Serb bashing". I liked the Serbs I met. Most of 'em, anyways. Same thing for the Croats, Bosniaks, Albanians, and Macedonians. But the second bloody thing I learned from the Balkans is that no group is innocent there and each ethnic group in the region are lying scum that will do anything if it damages any other ethnic group. But they're also not as evil as every other group says. Been that way for 600 years too. First bloody rule is don't mess with the Russian mafia that actually run the whole region, they have more firepower than all NATO forces in the entire region.

The Balkans have been a trade nexus since well before the Crusades. It's the gateway to Europe. These days, a lot of drugs enter Greece or Albania and are smuggled north. I remember hearing about heroin from Afghanistan, E from Israel, cocaine from Columbia and Bolivia, etc. Not much weed, too bulky I guess. Some was grown in the mountains for local regional use. In the other direction were SUV's stolen from Germany, weapons from Russia, pallets of Euros, and advanced medicine. Electronics went in both directions too. Russians have a major lock on the human smuggling, and it's a death sentence to try to cut into it.

The UCK (Oo Che Kugh, aka the KLA) was involved in smuggling in all kinds of things, not just heroin. Some went to personal coffers, some went to buy arms. About as Maoist as my left arm, but they can pretend to be any ideology ya want if you have enough cash or influence.

Remember what I said about NO group in the region being the good guys? This is what I meant. Serbs wanted Greater Serbia at any cost. It wasn't a desire to prevent some global socialist conspiracy. It was good ol' fashion ethnic solidarity (and genocide) and flat out 'imperialism'. Conquer your neighbors, kill the inhabitants, repopulate it with your own ethnically appropriate people. Serbia is a socialist nation. With some lingering elements of communism, slowly dying but not quite dead.

Albanians were in the region prior to the Slavic migration in the 8th century. Then the area went through a bunch of invasions. Romans, Byzantine, Bulgarian Empire, Serbian Empire, and then the Ottoman Empire for a long while. During the Russo-Turkish war, the Slavs tried the same thing they did in the 90's. Tried to kick the ethnic Albanians off the land and kill any who resisted. Same in 1912. The Albanians did the same to the Serbs in 1915 and 1942, kick the Serbs off the land and kill any who resisted. Neither side can claim moral superiority.

Greater Serbia, Greater Albania, hell at a bar in Petrovic, I heard "Greater Macedonia." Greeks kinda laughed at the last one, but hey, everyone's got dreams. Ethnic warfare has crippled the region since the 1389 Battle of Kosovo. Longer than that, likely. If the Serbs try to retake Kosova, they probably will. For a short interval. Then they will lose it. Then the cycle continues. It's a problem when you have two ethnic groups who refuse to die and both want the same turf.


What does the independence mean for tiny Kosovo? War and death down the road.

But to any Kosovar reading this: Freedom is worth any price. Seek it always. Guard it jealously. Kill anyone who tries to take it from you. If you surrender it, you deserve to die because you have nothing to live for.